This summer transfer window offers a real opportunity for Everton.
Director of football Kevin Thelwell remains restricted by financial issues, including spending regulations and the broader uncertainties at the top of the club. A successful takeover won’t happen quickly enough to resolve all these concerns, though it could impact the latter stages of the window.
However, if Thelwell is strategic and can leverage some of his recruitment team’s efforts, Everton could enter next season in better shape than the last. Despite a thin squad last season, they delivered results that could have placed them near the top half of the table, if not for the unprecedented sanctions they faced.
There are two critical periods this summer when Everton could be most vulnerable: the end of this month and the very end of the transfer window. The club’s fate this summer will largely hinge on these key dates. The first pinch point revolves around the Profit and Sustainability Regulations, which led to two points deductions last season.
These regulations have disrupted the plans of several clubs, with as many as six believed to need sales to stay within the three-year, £105m loss limit by the end of this football financial year, which concludes this month. This situation creates an unofficial “deadline day” on June 30. Everton is one of the clubs that would benefit from sales to comply with these rules and avoid a third deduction, making them more susceptible to low offers from other clubs. This vulnerability was evident in Manchester United’s low bid for Jarrad Branthwaite on Friday.
Ideally, Everton would manage outgoings on their terms, helping them meet the financial parameters and then firmly defend the key players central to Sean Dyche’s plans. Arsenal’s interest in Amadou Onana, seen as talented but not as crucial as some teammates, could be beneficial for Everton.
The second pinch point is at the end of the summer transfer window, when Everton might need to consider sales to address cash flow issues for the upcoming months. This financial need was previously met by 777 Partners between September and May, but their collapsed takeover deal has left a gap. If Everton must think about sales to manage cash flow, they might have to balance getting true market value with the need to be pragmatic. A pending takeover could influence this scenario; even if it isn’t completed, confidence in securing new funding sources could protect Everton as the transfer deadline approaches.
A scenario where the Blues are at their weakest during critical moments is alarming, potentially forcing them to make on-the-pitch sacrifices to protect themselves off the pitch.
**Ending the Uncertainty at the Top**
The threat at the end of the transfer window could be mitigated if the uncertainty surrounding Everton’s ownership is resolved. Majority shareholder Farhad Moshiri seems close to entering an exclusivity agreement with US billionaire and Roma owner Dan Friedkin. However, this wouldn’t immediately resolve all issues. Previous exclusivity deals have fallen through, and the Premier League’s Owners and Directors Test, which assesses potential owners, will take time even if Friedkin is deemed a credible candidate.
While a complete takeover might be months away, there’s a real chance the club could start moving towards stability this summer. Resolving the ownership question is crucial; Everton cannot begin a third consecutive season without clarity on who will be the club’s next owner. Nothing is more important to the club’s progress than ending this uncertainty at the top.
**Loan Spots Have to Be Used Wisely**
Against this challenging backdrop, Thelwell and Dyche must prepare for the final campaign at Goodison Park. Their task is to overcome existing problems to field a competitive side next season. Some useful steps have been taken, such as extending the contracts of Idrissa Gueye and Seamus Coleman to retain their vast experience. Additionally, a new deal has been offered to Ashley Young, who has expressed his desire to stay at the club, though it has yet to be confirmed.
This summer, Everton will look to exploit the loan market, and the available spots must be used wisely. The club has had mixed success with loan signings since Thelwell joined in February 2022. In his first season, the loan deal for Conor Coady was a significant success, especially after serious injuries to Yerry Mina and Ben Godfrey in the opening league game. However, Ruben Vinagre was barely utilized.
Last season, Everton’s recruitment team believed they had secured two of the best deals on the market with Jack Harrison and Arnaut Danjuma. While Harrison became central to the team, Danjuma did not fit as well into Dyche’s plans.
**The Lesson Kevin Thelwell Took from the Anthony Gordon Sale**
The transfer market is unpredictable, and Everton are not in a position to dictate terms to other clubs given their current constraints. However, Thelwell will need to be decisive in his plans, with timing being crucial.
When Anthony Gordon left late in the January 2023 window, Thelwell believed there was money to reinvest. However, despite the club facing a severe relegation battle, there wasn’t enough time to spend it wisely. From that experience, Thelwell learned the importance of setting deadlines for deals to ensure the club has the opportunity to address any subsequent needs.
Everton face a summer where sales are expected and are prepared for further interest in Jarrad Branthwaite, Amadou Onana, and possibly Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Although the factors influencing decisions will vary at different stages of the window, Thelwell must find a way to exercise some control over proceedings.
This is crucial when it comes to sales. Everton will want to react to departures as early as possible to create a settled side that can bond during Dyche’s rigorous pre-season training. This is especially important with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who is wanted by clubs like Newcastle United but is also negotiating a new contract. If he doesn’t sign a new deal and enters the final 12 months of his contract, this summer might be the last chance to secure significant money for him. Therefore, a plan needs to be in place that allows Everton to act in the club’s best interests.
Timing is also vital for incomings. Everton are interested in Jack Harrison and Manchester City’s Kalvin Phillips, but they would likely need to acquire them on loan. However, their parent clubs prefer sales. Everton won’t have the funds to dictate terms to either Leeds United or Manchester City, but they also can’t afford to spend the entire summer hoping the players remain available. If a late bid for either player occurs, it could leave Dyche and Thelwell scrambling for other options.
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