The worrying Southampton trend that gives Leeds United and Ipswich Town an advantage

Joe Aribo’s stoppage-time winner helped Southampton defeat Birmingham City 4-3 on Saturday, preserving their hopes of automatic promotion. It was the kind of win that many people associate with winning teams, and this game will undoubtedly be remembered as crucial if the Saints manage to finish in the top two come May. Russell Martin’s team persevered despite falling behind twice and then having ten men pinned back, and their efforts were rewarded when Aribo scored in the 96th minute. This demonstrated that Southampton does have the mentality to go all the way to the finish in this exciting promotion battle, especially after a string of losses.But when you strip away the excitement of the victory at St. Andrew’s, Saints have cause for concern as they once again let goals slip through their fingers. The Blues are hardly the most prolific scorers in the Championship; coming into this match on Saturday, they had only scored three goals in a single game since the first week of October. However, they appeared dangerous against Saints, and even with a goal and a man advantage, Martin’s team gave the impression that the game would continue on, which turned out to be the case. This is concerning since Southampton has now given up, which is a concerning trend.

Gavin Bazunu Southampton

It’s not like they’ve been coming up against the best teams in the league either, as Huddersfield and Bristol City also registered three times against the south coast side. Some will understandably point out that it doesn’t matter how many goals you concede if you win, and it’s worth stating that they did overcome both Blues and the Terriers. But, it doesn’t feel sustainable, and the narrow defeats to Hull City and Millwall, who both won 2-1 at St. Mary’s, shows you can’t always rely on outscoring the opposition.

Martin has rightly developed a reputation as an exciting, progressive coach, and the risk he demands his team plays with is central to his philosophy. So, there’s no point thinking he will change and suddenly become the sort of coach that has two banks of four and tries to grind out a 1-0 win. Yet, Southampton’s remarkable club-record 25-game unbeaten run earlier in the season was built on solid foundations, as they kept 11 clean sheets in that time. That doesn’t tell the whole story though, as in the first 24 of those games, Saints only conceded two or more goals on one occasion – a 2-2 draw with Preston. The last game before the run ended, a 5-3 win over Huddersfield, was the start of this concerning defensive lapse. So, despite all the praise he rightly receives for his stylish football, the reality is that Martin had built a team that displayed resilience, strength and, crucially, they knew how to use their system to limit what the opposition could do. Now, with 11 games to go, Southampton must get back to that if they are to finish above two of Leed United, Ipswich Town and Leicester City. Saturday was proof that they have the firepower to match those sides, but their defensive inconsistencies could prove costly during this tense and exciting run-in. The last game before the run ended, a 5-3 win over Huddersfield, was the start of this concerning defensive lapse. So, despite all the praise he rightly receives for his stylish football, the reality is that Martin had built a team that displayed resilience, strength and, crucially, they knew how to use their system to limit what the opposition could do. Now, with 11 games to go, Southampton must get back to that if they are to finish above two of Leed United, Ipswich Town and Leicester City. Saturday was proof that they have the firepower to match those sides, but their defensive inconsistencies could prove costly during this tense and exciting run-in.

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